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User:Towerman/translation/关于气候变化的科学观点

< User:Towerman | translation
  此页面介紹的是关于当前气候变化或全球变暖的科学共识。关于公众的认知和争议，请见「关于气候变化的公众舆论」和「全球变暖争议」。
refer to caption
自1880年以来的全球平均陆地-海洋温度相对于1951-1980年平均值的变化。黑线是年平均，红线是5年移动平均，绿条是不确定性估计。来源：NASA GISS

关于气候变化的科学观点是科学家们对关于“全球变暖是否正在发生，如果发生，其原因和可能的后果”等议题的总体看法。这种科学的意见是通过国家性或国际性的科学机构的综合报告和对气候科学家的意见调查来体现的。科学家个人，大学和实验室通过同行评审的出版物来贡献于这个整体的科学意见，达成共识和相对确定的部分被总结在高层次的综合报告和调查中。[1]

当前的科学共识（英语：scientific consensus）认为，地球气候系统是明确地变暖，而且极有可能的（至少95％的概率）是，人类活动（比如毁林和燃烧化石燃料）增加了大气中温室气体的浓度，从而导致大部分的变暖。此外，有可能的是，增加的气溶胶已经抵消了一些潜在的更进一步的温室气体造成的变暖。[2][3][4][5]

国家性和国际性的科学院（英语：Academy of sciences）和科学协会（英语：Learned society）已评估了有关全球变暖的当前的科学意见。这些评估是与政府间气候变化专门委员会的结论基本一致的。IPCC第四次评估报告的被总结如下：

一些科研团体已经向政府建议了一些具体政策。他们还建议，科学可以为有效应对气候变化提供信息。但政策决定可能需要价值判断（英语：Value judgment），因此其不包括在科学意见中。[11][12]

没有国家性或国际性的科学团体长期保持了一个不同于上面这些主流观点的正式的意见。最后一个撤销不同于主流的观点的国家性或国际性的科学团体是美国石油地质学家协会（英语：American Association of Petroleum Geologists）。[13] 他们在2007年[14]更新了对气候变化的声明，改变了原先的对气候变化不置可否的意见。[15]其他的一些组织（主要是那些专注于地质学的组织）也曾经持有这抱不置可否的意见。

综合报告

综合报告是对一系列记录单个研究结果的文献的综合，以达到对某一特定主题的认识状况的描述，或是达到广度的理解。[16]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014

主条目：Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change和IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007

In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. According to this summary, the Fourth Assessment Report finds that human actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming, meaning a 90% or greater probability. Global warming in this case is indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.[17]

The New York Times reported that “the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950”.[18]

A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.”.[19]

The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise:

On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9 to 7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues.[20]

U.S. Global Change Research Program

formerly the Climate Change Science Program

The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June 2009[21] that:

Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities.

The report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the United States, also says:

Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7°F. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental International Arctic Science Committee released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:[22]

Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.[23]

政策

关于什么样的政策可能会有效地应对气候变化，专家们已经在科学文献上有过广泛讨论。[24]一些科研团体已经向政府建议了一些具体政策（参考本文后面的章节）。[25]自然和社会科学可以为有效应对气候变化提供信息。[11]然而，政策决定可能需要价值判断（英语：Value judgment）。[11]例如，美國國家科學研究委員會已经建议：[12]

是否存在一个温室气体浓度的“安全”级别的“安全”级别不能直接回答，因为这需要对什么是可接受的风险对人类福祉和世界各地的生态系统，以及对风险的更多量化评估的价值判断和随着全球气候变暖的各种影响的相关费用。在一般情况下，然而，风险增加而增加两者的速度和气候变化的幅度。

本文主要侧重于自然科学家的意见。然而，社会科学家，[24]医学专家，[26]工程师[24]和哲学家[27]也谈到气候变化科学与政策。气候变化政策在几篇文章中讨论：减缓气候变化，适应气候变化，气候工程，全球变暖，气候伦理政治和全球变暖的经济学。

Statements by scientific organizations of national or international standing

参见：Global warming controversy § Mainstream scientific position, and challenges to it

This is a list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion, classifies those organizations according to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent from it.

Concurring

Academies of science (general science)

Since 2001, 34 national science academies, three regional academies, and both the international InterAcademy Council and International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences have made formal declarations confirming human induced global warming and urging nations to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The 34 national science academy statements include 33 who have signed joint science academy statements and one individual declaration by the Polish Academy of Sciences in 2007.

Joint national science academy statements
  • 2001 Following the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, seventeen national science academies issued a joint statement, entitled "The Science of Climate Change", explicitly acknowledging the IPCC position as representing the scientific consensus on climate change science. The statement, printed in an editorial in the journal Science on May 18, 2001,[28] was signed by the science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.[29]
  • 2005 The national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action, and explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus. The eleven signatories were the science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[30]
  • 2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration referencing the position of the 2005 joint science academies' statement, and acknowledging the confirmation of their previous conclusion by recent research. Following the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the declaration states, "It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken." The thirteen signatories were the national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.[31]
  • 2007 In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the Network of African Science Academies submitted a joint “statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change” :

A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change. The IPCC should be congratulated for the contribution it has made to public understanding of the nexus that exists between energy, climate and sustainability.

——The thirteen signatories were the science academies of Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, as well as the African Academy of Sciences，[32]
  • 2008 In preparation for the 34th G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration reiterating the position of the 2005 joint science academies’ statement, and reaffirming “that climate change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems.” Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to “(t)ake appropriate economic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national behaviour.” The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 joint statement.[33]
  • 2009 In advance of the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statement declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply are crucial challenges for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the emission reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change". The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid." The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 and 2008 joint statements.[25]
Polish Academy of Sciences

In December 2007, the General Assembly of the Polish Academy of Sciences (Polska Akademia Nauk), which has not been a signatory to joint national science academy statements issued a declaration endorsing the IPCC conclusions, and stating:

it is the duty of Polish science and the national government to, in a thoughtful, organized and active manner, become involved in realisation of these ideas.

Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts on human life and on the functioning of entire societies are one of the most dramatic challenges of modern times.

PAS General Assembly calls on the national scientific communities and the national government to actively support Polish participation in this important endeavor.[34]

Additional national science academy and society statements

The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society....The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.[35]

Global climate change is real and measurable...To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions. The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.

  • United States National Research Council through its Committee on the Science of Climate Change in 2001, published Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions.[37] This report explicitly endorses the IPCC view of attribution of recent climate change as representing the view of the scientific community:

The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century... The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.[37]

  • Royal Society of New Zealand having signed onto the first joint science academy statement in 2001, released a separate statement in 2008 in order to clear up "the controversy over climate change and its causes, and possible confusion among the public":

The globe is warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Measurements show that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are well above levels seen for many thousands of years. Further global climate changes are predicted, with impacts expected to become more costly as time progresses. Reducing future impacts of climate change will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.[38]

  • The Royal Society of the United Kingdom has not changed its concurring stance reflected in its participation in joint national science academies' statements on anthropogenic global warming. According to the Telegraph, "The most prestigious group of scientists in the country was forced to act after fellows complained that doubts over man made global warming were not being communicated to the public".[39] In May 2010, it announced that it "is presently drafting a new public facing document on climate change, to provide an updated status report on the science in an easily accessible form, also addressing the levels of certainty of key components."[40] The society says that it is three years since the last such document was published and that, after an extensive process of debate and review,[41][42] the new document was printed in September 2010. It summarises the current scientific evidence and highlights the areas where the science is well established, where there is still some debate, and where substantial uncertainties remain. The society has stated that "this is not the same as saying that the climate science itself is in error – no Fellows have expressed such a view to the RS".[40] The introduction includes this statement:

There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity, such as the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use, including agriculture and deforestation.

International science academies
  • African Academy of Sciences in 2007 was a signatory to the "statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change". This joint statement of African science academies, was organized through the Network of African Science Academies. It's stated goal was "to convey information and spur action on the occasion of the G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, Germany, in June 2007".

A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.[43]

Human activity is most likely responsible for climate warming. Most of the climatic warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. The above development potentially has dramatic consequences for mankind’s future.[44]

There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change... On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial.

Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.[48] Concerted efforts should be mounted for improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon intensity of the world economy.[49]

As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control. CAETS, therefore, endorses the many recent calls to decrease and control greenhouse gas emissions to an acceptable level as quickly as possible.

Physical and chemical sciences

Earth sciences

American Geophysical Union

The American Geophysical Union (AGU) statement, adopted by the society in 2003, revised in 2007,[56] and revised and expanded in 2013,[57] affirms that rising levels of greenhouse gases have caused and will continue to cause the global surface temperature to be warmer:

“Human activities are changing Earth’s climate. At the global level, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases have increased sharply since the Industrial Revolution. Fossil fuel burning dominates this increase. Human-caused increases in greenhouse gases are responsible for most of the observed global average surface warming of roughly 0.8°C (1.5°F) over the past 140 years. Because natural processes cannot quickly remove some of these gases (notably carbon dioxide) from the atmosphere, our past, present, and future emissions will influence the climate system for millennia. While important scientific uncertainties remain as to which particular impacts will be experienced where, no uncertainties are known that could make the impacts of climate change inconsequential. Furthermore, surprise outcomes, such as the unexpectedly rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice, may entail even more dramatic changes than anticipated."

American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America

In May, 2011, the American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA) issued a joint position statement on climate change as it relates to agriculture:

A comprehensive body of scientific evidence indicates beyond reasonable doubt that global climate change is now occurring and that its manifestations threaten the stability of societies as well as natural and managed ecosystems. Increases in ambient temperatures and changes in related processes are directly linked to rising anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere.

Unless the emissions of GHGs are curbed significantly, their concentrations will continue to rise, leading to changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables that will undoubtedly affect agriculture around the world.

Climate change has the potential to increase weather variability as well as gradually increase global temperatures. Both of these impacts have the potential to negatively impact the adaptability and resilience of the world’s food production capacity; current research indicates climate change is already reducing the productivity of vulnerable cropping systems.[58]

European Federation of Geologists

In 2008, the European Federation of Geologists[59] (EFG) issued the position paper Carbon Capture and geological Storage :

The EFG recognizes the work of the IPCC and other organizations, and subscribes to the major findings that climate change is happening, is predominantly caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and poses a significant threat to human civilization.

It is clear that major efforts are necessary to quickly and strongly reduce CO2 emissions. The EFG strongly advocates renewable and sustainable energy production, including geothermal energy, as well as the need for increasing energy efficiency.

CCS [Carbon Capture and geological Storage] should also be regarded as a bridging technology, facilitating the move towards a carbon free economy.[60]

European Geosciences Union

In 2005, the Divisions of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) issued a position statement in support of the joint science academies’ statement on global response to climate change. The statement refers to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as "the main representative of the global scientific community", and asserts that the IPCC

represents the state-of-the-art of climate science supported by the major science academies around the world and by the vast majority of science researchers and investigators as documented by the peer-reviewed scientific literature.[61]

Additionally, in 2008, the EGU issued a position statement on ocean acidification which states, "Ocean acidification is already occurring today and will continue to intensify, closely tracking atmospheric CO2 increase. Given the potential threat to marine ecosystems and its ensuing impact on human society and economy, especially as it acts in conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action." The statement then advocates for strategies "to limit future release of CO2 to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of excess CO2 from the atmosphere."[62]

Geological Society of America

In 2006, the Geological Society of America adopted a position statement on global climate change. It amended this position on April 20, 2010 with more explicit comments on need for CO2 reduction.

Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s. If current trends continue, the projected increase in global temperature by the end of the twentyfirst century will result in large impacts on humans and other species. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change will require a combination of adaptation to the changes that are likely to occur and global reductions of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic sources.[63]

Geological Society of London

In November 2010, the Geological Society of London issued the position statement Climate change: evidence from the geological record:

The last century has seen a rapidly growing global population and much more intensive use of resources, leading to greatly increased emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), and from agriculture, cement production and deforestation. Evidence from the geological record is consistent with the physics that shows that adding large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the world and may lead to: higher sea levels and flooding of low-lying coasts; greatly changed patterns of rainfall; increased acidity of the oceans; and decreased oxygen levels in seawater. There is now widespread concern that the Earth’s climate will warm further, not only because of the lingering effects of the added carbon already in the system, but also because of further additions as human population continues to grow. Life on Earth has survived large climate changes in the past, but extinctions and major redistribution of species have been associated with many of them. When the human population was small and nomadic, a rise in sea level of a few metres would have had very little effect on Homo sapiens. With the current and growing global population, much of which is concentrated in coastal cities, such a rise in sea level would have a drastic effect on our complex society, especially if the climate were to change as suddenly as it has at times in the past. Equally, it seems likely that as warming continues some areas may experience less precipitation leading to drought. With both rising seas and increasing drought, pressure for human migration could result on a large scale.[64]

International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics

In July 2007, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) adopted a resolution titled “The Urgency of Addressing Climate Change”. In it, the IUGG concurs with the “comprehensive and widely accepted and endorsed scientific assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and regional and national bodies, which have firmly established, on the basis of scientific evidence, that human activities are the primary cause of recent climate change.” They state further that the “continuing reliance on combustion of fossil fuels as the world’s primary source of energy will lead to much higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which will, in turn, cause significant increases in surface temperature, sea level, ocean acidification, and their related consequences to the environment and society.”[65]

National Association of Geoscience Teachers

In July 2009, the National Association of Geoscience Teachers[66] (NAGT) adopted a position statement on climate change in which they assert that "Earth's climate is changing [and] "that present warming trends are largely the result of human activities":

NAGT strongly supports and will work to promote education in the science of climate change, the causes and effects of current global warming, and the immediate need for policies and actions that reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.[67]

Meteorology and oceanography

American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2012 concluded:

There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities. This scientific finding is based on a large and persuasive body of research. The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing warming will increase risks and stresses to human societies, economies, ecosystems, and wildlife through the 21st century and beyond, making it imperative that society respond to a changing climate. To inform decisions on adaptation and mitigation, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the global climate system and our ability to project future climate through continued and improved monitoring and research. This is especially true for smaller (seasonal and regional) scales and weather and climate extremes, and for important hydroclimatic variables such as precipitation and water availability. Technological, economic, and policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of future impacts of climate change. Science-based decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. National and international policy discussions should include consideration of the best ways to both adapt to and mitigate climate change. Mitigation will reduce the amount of future climate change and the risk of impacts that are potentially large and dangerous. At the same time, some continued climate change is inevitable, and policy responses should include adaptation to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in accounting for our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.[68]

Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society has issued a Statement on Climate Change, wherein they conclude:

Global climate change and global warming are real and observable ... It is highly likely that those human activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely responsible for the observed warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases originating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since the start of the industrial age and is higher now than at any time in at least the past 650,000 years. This increase is a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.”[69]

Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences

In November 2005, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) issued a letter to the Prime Minister of Canada stating that

We concur with the climate science assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 ... We endorse the conclusions of the IPCC assessment that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. ... There is increasingly unambiguous evidence of changing climate in Canada and around the world. There will be increasing impacts of climate change on Canada’s natural ecosystems and on our socio-economic activities. Advances in climate science since the 2001 IPCC Assessment have provided more evidence supporting the need for action and development of a strategy for adaptation to projected changes.[70]

Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

In November 2009, a letter to the Canadian Parliament by The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society states:

Rigorous international research, including work carried out and supported by the Government of Canada, reveals that greenhouse gases resulting from human activities contribute to the warming of the atmosphere and the oceans and constitute a serious risk to the health and safety of our society, as well as having an impact on all life.[71]

Royal Meteorological Society (UK)

In February 2007, after the release of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the Royal Meteorological Society issued an endorsement of the report. In addition to referring to the IPCC as "[the] world’s best climate scientists", they stated that climate change is happening as “the result of emissions since industrialization and we have already set in motion the next 50 years of global warming – what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get.”[72]

World Meteorological Organization

In its Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change presented on November 15, 2006, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms the need to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The WMO concurs that “scientific assessments have increasingly reaffirmed that human activities are indeed changing the composition of the atmosphere, in particular through the burning of fossil fuels for energy production and transportation.” The WMO concurs that “the present atmospheric concentration of CO2 was never exceeded over the past 420,000 years;” and that the IPCC “assessments provide the most authoritative, up-to-date scientific advice.” [73]

American Quaternary Association

The American Quaternary Association (AMQUA) has stated

Few credible Scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented rise of global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution,” citing “the growing body of evidence that warming of the atmosphere, especially over the past 50 years, is directly impacted by human activity.[74]

International Union for Quaternary Research

The statement on climate change issued by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) reiterates the conclusions of the IPCC, and urges all nations to take prompt action in line with the UNFCCC principles.

Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases — including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide — to rise well above pre-industrial levels….Increases in greenhouse gases are causing temperatures to rise…The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action….Minimizing the amount of this carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere presents a huge challenge but must be a global priority.[75]

Biology and life sciences

Life science organizations have outlined the dangers climate change pose to wildlife.

Human health

A number of health organizations have warned about the numerous negative health effects of global warming

There is now widespread agreement that the Earth is warming, due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activity. It is also clear that current trends in energy use, development, and population growth will lead to continuing – and more severe – climate change.

The changing climate will inevitably affect the basic requirements for maintaining health: clean air and water, sufficient food and adequate shelter. Each year, about 800,000 people die from causes attributable to urban air pollution, 1.8 million from diarrhoea resulting from lack of access to clean water supply, sanitation, and poor hygiene, 3.5 million from malnutrition and approximately 60,000 in natural disasters. A warmer and more variable climate threatens to lead to higher levels of some air pollutants, increase transmission of diseases through unclean water and through contaminated food, to compromise agricultural production in some of the least developed countries, and increase the hazards of extreme weather.

Miscellaneous

A number of other national scientific societies have also endorsed the opinion of the IPCC:

Non-committal

American Association of Petroleum Geologists

As of June 2007, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Position Statement on climate change stated:

the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases ... Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS and AMS. AAPG respects these scientific opinions but wants to add that the current climate warming projections could fall within well-documented natural variations in past climate and observed temperature data. These data do not necessarily support the maximum case scenarios forecast in some models.[99]

Prior to the adoption of this statement, the AAPG was the only major scientific organization that rejected the finding of significant human influence on recent climate, according to a statement by the Council of the American Quaternary Association.[13] Explaining the plan for a revision, AAPG president Lee Billingsly wrote in March 2007:

Members have threatened to not renew their memberships… if AAPG does not alter its position on global climate change... And I have been told of members who already have resigned in previous years because of our current global climate change position… The current policy statement is not supported by a significant number of our members and prospective members.[100]

AAPG President John Lorenz announced the "sunsetting" of AAPG’s Global Climate Change Committee in January 2010. The AAPG Executive Committee determined:

Climate change is peripheral at best to our science […] AAPG does not have credibility in that field […] and as a group we have no particular knowledge of global atmospheric geophysics.[101]

American Institute of Professional Geologists

In 2009, the American Institute of Professional Geologists[102] (AIPG) sent a statement to President Barack Obama and other US government officials:

The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring and has the potential to yield catastrophic impacts if humanity is not prepared to address those impacts. It is also recognized that climate change will occur regardless of the cause. The sooner a defensible scientific understanding can be developed, the better equipped humanity will be to develop economically viable and technically effective methods to support the needs of society.[103]

Concerned that the original statement issued in March 2009 was too ambiguous, AIPG’s National Executive Committee approved a revised position statement issued in January 2010:

The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring regardless of cause. AIPG supports continued research into all forces driving climate change.[104]

In March 2010, AIPG’s Executive Director issued a statement regarding polarization of opinions on climate change within the membership and announced that the AIPG Executive had made a decision to cease publication of articles and opinion pieces concerning climate change in AIPG’s news journal, The Professional Geologist.[105] The Executive Director said that “the question of anthropogenicity of climate change is contentious.”[106]

Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences

The science of global climate change is still evolving and our understanding of this vital Earth system is not as developed as is the case for other Earth systems such as plate tectonics. What is known with certainty is that regardless of the causes, our global climate will continue to change for the foreseeable future... The level of CO2 in our atmosphere is now greater than at any time in the past 500,000 years; there will be consequences for our global climate and natural systems as a result.[107]

Geological Society of Australia

After a long and extensive and extended consultation with society members, the GSA executive committee has decided not to proceed with a climate change position statement.[108]

Dissenting

参见：List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming

截至2007年 (2007-Missing required parameter 1=month!), when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement,[14] no scientific body of national or international scientists rejects the findings of human-induced effects on climate change.[13][15]

Surveys of scientists and scientific literature

 
对气候和地球科学家有关气候变化的意见的总结。点击图片可以看到更详细的说明。
 
超过97%的发表过论文的气候研究者认为人类对全球变暖要付大部分责任。[109][110][111]

有许多调查已经评估过有关全球变暖的科学观点。他们的结论是，大多数科学家支持当前气候变化主要是人为造成的。

2004年，地质学家和科学历史学家内奥米·奥利斯克斯（英语：Naomi Oreskes）对有关气候变化的科学文献的研究做了一个总结。[112]她分析了从1993年到2003年之间的科学期刊中的928论文的摘要，得出的结论是，对人为造成的气候变化的真实性存在着一个科学共识。

奥利斯克斯将这些摘要分为六大类：明确支持奥雷克斯划分成抽象六大类：在协商一致的立场明确认可，影响评估，缓解建议，方法，古气候分析，并拒绝协商一致的立场的。摘要的七十五％的人放在前三类（显式或隐式地接受共识）; 25％的处理方法或古气候，从而以目前的人为气候变化没有立场。没有一个摘要不同意协商一致的立场，其中笔者发现是“显着”。据报道，“作者评估影响，开发方法，或学习古气候变化可能会认为，当前的气候变化是自然的。然而，没有这些论文指出这一点。”

2007年，哈里斯民意调查随机抽选了美国气象学会和美国地球物理联合会的489名会员进行了调查。这项调查是为喬治梅森大學的统计评估服务（英语：Statistical Assessment Service）（STATS）进行的。接受调查的科学家中，97％同意全球气温在过去的100年有所增加; 84％的人表示他们个人认为人类活动引起的全球变暖正在发生，而74％的人同意“现有的科学证据”证实它的发生。41%的人认为近50〜100年灾难性的影响可能会被看到，另外，44％的人认为气候变化的影响将是温和的，约13％的人认为影响将比较小，5％的人认为人类活动并未导致温室效应。[113][114][115][116]

丹尼斯·布雷和汉斯·冯·斯多赫（英语：Hans von Storch）在2008年8月对来自34个不同国家的2058名气候科学家进行了调查。[117]调查显示，对于问题“你多么相信气候变化（无论它是自然的还是人为造成的）正在发生？”，67.1%的人表示非常同意气候变化正在进行，26.7%认为某种程度上是，6.2%认为非常小的程度，没有人说他完全不相信。对于问题“你多么相信最近或不久的将来的气候变化是人为造成的？”，34.6％的回答是非常同意，48.9％同意在很大程度上是，15.1％认为是在小范围内，而1.35％完全不同意。

伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校的彼得·多兰（英语：Peter Doran）和玛吉·肯德尔·齐默尔曼对10257名地球科学家进行了一项民意调查，他们收到了3146份答复。结果显示，90％的气候学家（其将气候科学列为他们的专业领域，以及他们最近发表的经过同行评议的论文中超过50％的论文是关于气候变化）认为，相比公元1800年前的水平，全球平均气温已经上升。82%的人认为，人类活动是导致正在改变的全球平均温度的一个重要因素。在所有受访者中，经济地质学家和气象学家是最大的怀疑者，分别只有47％和64％的该领域学者相信显著的人为影响。作者总结了调查结果：

看来对全球变暖和人类活动在其中所扮演的角色的真实性的争论，在那些了解长期气候过程的科学基础和微妙之处的人中是基本不存在的。[118]

2010年，美国国家科学院院刊（PNAS）上的一篇论文审查了1372名气候研究者的论文和引文数据，得出以下两个结论：

（i）在专业领域发表论文活跃的气候研究者中，97-98％的人支持政府间气候变化专门委员会概述的人为产生的气候变化的学说；（ii）对人为产生的气候变化的学说不信服的研究者，其科学重要性以及对气候学科的专业性要远低于那些信服的研究者。[119]

2013年，环境研究通讯（英语：Environmental Research Letters）的一篇论文审查了11944篇有关“全球变暖”或“全球气候变化”的科学论文的摘要。他们发现，有4014篇讨论了最近的全球变暖的原因，以及这些论文中的97.1％赞同主流的共识。[120]

美国国家科学委员会（英语：National Science Board）的前成员和美国国家自然科学协会（英语：National Physical Science Consortium）的现任执行主任詹姆斯·鲍威尔（英语：James L. Powell），分析了从1991年到2012年发表的关于全球变暖和气候变化的研究，在13950篇发表在同行评议的期刊上的论文里，只有24篇反对人为造成的全球变暖。引用错误：没有找到与<ref>对应的</ref>标签

Scientific consensus

参见：Scientific consensus

A question that frequently arises in popular discussion of climate change is whether there is a scientific consensus on climate change.[1] Several scientific organizations have explicitly used the term "consensus" in their statements:

  • American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2006: "The conclusions in this statement reflect the scientific consensus represented by, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Joint National Academies' statement."[35]
  • US National Academy of Sciences: "In the judgment of most climate scientists, Earth’s warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. ... On climate change, [the National Academies’ reports] have assessed consensus findings on the science..."[121]
  • Joint Science Academies' statement, 2005: "We recognise the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[122]
  • Joint Science Academies' statement, 2001: "The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus."[29]
  • American Meteorological Society, 2003: "The nature of science is such that there is rarely total agreement among scientists. Individual scientific statements and papers—the validity of some of which has yet to be assessed adequately—can be exploited in the policy debate and can leave the impression that the scientific community is sharply divided on issues where there is, in reality, a strong scientific consensus.... IPCC assessment reports are prepared at approximately five-year intervals by a large international group of experts who represent the broad range of expertise and perspectives relevant to the issues. The reports strive to reflect a consensus evaluation of the results of the full body of peer-reviewed research.... They provide an analysis of what is known and not known, the degree of consensus, and some indication of the degree of confidence that can be placed on the various statements and conclusions."[123]
  • Network of African Science Academies: “A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.”[32]
  • International Union for Quaternary Research, 2008: "INQUA recognizes the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[75]
  • Australian Coral Reef Society,[124] 2006: "There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases.... There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming...."[125]

See also

References

  1. ^ 1.0 1.1 Oreskes, Naomi. The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong?. DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M. (编). Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. MIT Press. 2007: 65–66. ISBN 978-0-262-54193-0. 
  2. ^ "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level." IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 1.1: Observations of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007.
  3. ^ IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, «It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century» (page 15) and «In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: (...) extremely likely: 95–100%» (page 2). , in IPCC AR5 WG1 2013.
  4. ^ IPCC, Synthesis Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007."It is likely that increases in GHG concentrations alone would have caused more warming than observed because volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols have offset some warming that would otherwise have taken place."
  5. ^ [Notes-SciPanel] America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change; National Research Council. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. 2010. ISBN 0-309-14588-0. (p1) ... there is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. While much remains to be learned, the core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. * * * (p21-22) Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities. 
  6. ^ Summary for Policymakers, 1. Observed changes in climate and their effects , in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
  7. ^ Summary for Policymakers, 2. Causes of change , in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
  8. ^ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Parry, M.L.; et al, Technical summary, Industry, settlement and society, in: Box TS.5. The main projected impacts for systems and sectors , in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
  9. ^ IPCC, Summary for Policymakers, Magnitudes of impact , in IPCC AR4 WG2 2007
  10. ^ Synthesis report, Ecosystems, in: Sec 3.3.1 Impacts on systems and sectors , in IPCC AR4 SYR 2007
  11. ^ 11.0 11.1 11.2 Question 1, 1.1 , in IPCC TAR SYR 2001，第38頁
  12. ^ 12.0 12.1 Summary, in US NRC 2001，第4頁
  13. ^ 13.0 13.1 13.2 Julie Brigham-Grette. Petroleum Geologists' Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate (PDF). Eos. September 2006, 87 (36) [2007-01-23]. Bibcode:2006EOSTr..87..364B. doi:10.1029/2006EO360008. The AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.  已忽略未知参数|author-separator= (帮助)
  14. ^ 14.0 14.1 AAPG Climate Change June 2007
  15. ^ 15.0 15.1 Oreskes 2007，第68頁
  16. ^ Ogden, Aynslie and Cohen, Stewart. Integration and Synthesis: Assessing Climate Change Impacts in Northern Canada (PDF). 2002 [2009-04-12]. 
  17. ^ Warming 'very likely' human-made. BBC News (BBC). 2007-02-01 [2007-02-01]. 
  18. ^ Rosenthal, Elisabeth; Revkin, Andrew C. Science Panel Calls Global Warming ‘Unequivocal’. New York Times. 2007-02-03 [2010-08-28]. the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, 'very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950 
  19. ^ Stevens, William K. On the Climate Change Beat, Doubt Gives Way to Certainty. New York Times. 2007-02-06 [2010-08-28]. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labeled “very likely.” Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression. 
  20. ^ U.N. Report: Global Warming Man-Made, Basically Unstoppable. Fox News. [2012-07-30]. 
  21. ^ Downloads.globalchange.gov
  22. ^ Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment New Scientific Consensus: Arctic Is Warming Rapidly. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 2004-11-08 [2010-01-20]. 
  23. ^ ACIA Display. Amap.no. [2012-07-30]. 
  24. ^ 24.0 24.1 24.2 The literature has been assessed by the IPCC, e.g., see:
  25. ^ 25.0 25.1 2009 Joint Science Academies’ Statement
  26. ^ Doha Declaration on Climate, Health and Wellbeing . This statement has been signed by numerous medical organizations, including the World Medical Association.
  27. ^ Arnold, D.G. (编), The Ethics of Global Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, March 2011, ISBN 9781107000698 
  28. ^ Editorial: The Science of Climate Change. Science. May 18, 2001, 292 (5520): 1261. doi:10.1126/science.292.5520.1261. 
  29. ^ 29.0 29.1 The Science of Climate Change, The Royal Society
  30. ^ Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change, 2005
  31. ^ 2007 Joint Science Academies' Statement
  32. ^ 32.0 32.1 Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC) to the G8 on sustainability, energy efficiency and climate change (PDF). Network of African Science Academies. 2007 [2012-08-28]. 
  33. ^ 2008 Joint Science Academies’ Statement
  34. ^ Stanowisko Zgromadzenia Ogólnego PAN z dnia 13 grudnia 2007 r (PDF). Polish Academy of Sciences. [2009-06-16] （Polish）.  Note: As of 16 June 2009, PAS has not issued this statement in English, all citations have been translated from Polish.
  35. ^ 35.0 35.1 AAAS Board Statement on Climate Change www.aaas.org December 2006
  36. ^ FASTS Statement on Climate Change (PDF), 2008  "Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years. Key vulnerabilities arising from climate change include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements, biodiversity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe and widespread. To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions. The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity."
  37. ^ 37.0 37.1 Committee on the Science of Climate Change, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council. Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Washington DC: National Academy Press. 2001. ISBN 0-309-07574-2. 
  38. ^ Wratt, David; Renwick, James. Climate change statement from the Royal Society of New Zealand. The Royal Society of New Zealand. 2008-07-10 [2010-01-20]. 
  39. ^ Gray, Louise. Royal Society to publish guide on climate change to counter claims of 'exaggeration'. The Daily Telegraph (London). May 29, 2010. 
  40. ^ 40.0 40.1 New guide to science of climate change. The Royal Society. [9 June 2010]. 
  41. ^ Harrabin, Roger. Society to review climate message. BBC News. 27 May 2010 [9 June 2010]. 
  42. ^ Gardner, Dan. Some excitable climate-change deniers just don't understand what science is. Montreal Gazette. 8 June 2010 [9 June 2010]. （原始内容存档于11 June 2010）. 
  43. ^ Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC) to the G8 on sustainability, energy efficiency and climate change. 2007 [22 May 2015]. A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change... Although we recognize that this nexus poses daunting challenges for the developed world, we firmly believe that these challenges are even more daunting for the most impoverished, science-poor regions of the developing world, especially in Africa. 
  44. ^ European Academy of Sciences and Arts Let's Be Honest
  45. ^ European Science Foundation Position Paper Impacts of Climate Change on the European Marine and Coastal Environment — Ecosystems Approach: 7–10, 2007  "There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases affect the global climate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperature of the planet and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial."
  46. ^ Panel Urges Global Shift on Sources of Energy
  47. ^ InterAcademy Council. InterAcademy Council. [2012-07-30]. 
  48. ^ InterAcademy Council. InterAcademy Council. [2012-07-30]. 
  49. ^ InterAcademy Council. InterAcademy Council. [2012-07-30]. 
  50. ^ http://www.caets.org/nae/naecaets.nsf/(weblinks)/WSAN-78QL9A?OpenDocument
  51. ^ American Chemical Society Global Climte Change  "Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. The reality of global warming, its current serious and potentially disastrous impacts on Earth system properties, and the key role emissions from human activities play in driving these phenomena have been recognized by earlier versions of this ACS policy statement (ACS, 2004), by other major scientific societies, including the American Geophysical Union (AGU, 2003), the American Meteorological Society (AMS, 2007) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, 2007), and by the U. S. National Academies and ten other leading national academies of science (NA, 2005)."
  52. ^ American Institute of Physics Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change, 2003  "The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003."
  53. ^ American Physical Society Climate Change Policy Statement, November 2007  "Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes. The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now. Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth’s climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.
  54. ^ AIP science policy document. (PDF), 2005  "Policy: The AIP supports a reduction of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global temperatures, and encourages research that works towards this goal. Reason: Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will adversely affect the Earth’s climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combined with thermal expansion, will lead to rises in sea levels that may impact adversely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity will fundamentally change the ecology of Earth."
  55. ^ EPS Position Paper Energy for the future: The Nuclear Option (PDF), 2007  "The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning fossil fuels. A further increase will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change."
  56. ^ AGU Position Statement: Human Impacts on Climate. Agu.org. [2012-07-30]. 
  57. ^ Human-induced Climate Change Requires Urgent Action. Position Statement. American Geophysical Union. [14 August 2013]. 
  58. ^ ASA, CSSA, and SSSA Position Statement on Climate Change
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  60. ^ EFG Carbon Capture and geological Storage
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  62. ^ http://www.egu.eu/statements/egu-position-statement-on-ocean-acidification.html
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  65. ^ IUGG Resolution 6
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  69. ^ Statement. AMOS. [2012-07-30]. 
  70. ^ CFCAS Letter to PM, November 25, 2005
  71. ^ Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Letter to Stephen Harper (Updated, 2007)
  72. ^ http://www.rmets.org/news/detail.php?ID=332
  73. ^ WMO’s Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change.
  74. ^ AMQUA "Petroleum Geologists’ Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate"
  75. ^ 75.0 75.1 INQUA Statement On Climate Change.
  76. ^ AAWV Position Statement on Climate Change, Wildlife Diseases, and Wildlife Health  "There is widespread scientific agreement that the world’s climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have serious negative impacts on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme weather events, changing disease transmission dynamics, emerging and re-emerging diseases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter-relationships of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illustrated by the fact the majority of recent emerging diseases have a wildlife origin."
  77. ^ AIBS Position Statements  "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver."
  78. ^ Scientific societies warn Senate: climate change is real, Ars Technica, October 22, 2009 
  79. ^ Letter to US Senators (PDF), October 2009 
  80. ^ Global Environmental Change — Microbial Contributions, Microbial Solutions (PDF), American Society For Microbiology, May 2006  They recommended "reducing net anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere” and “minimizing anthropogenic disturbances of” atmospheric gases. Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago…as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change. Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, which also includes disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the oceans and land surface. Although global change has been a natural process throughout Earth’s history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating present-day changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere on which we depend. Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, hantavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change."
  81. ^ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter (PDF), 2006, （原始内容 (PDF)存档于22 March 2006）  Official communique regarding the Great Barrier Reef and the "world-wide decline in coral reefs through processes such as overfishing, runoff of nutrients from the land, coral bleaching, global climate change, ocean acidification, pollution", etc.: There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world’s experts) has come out with clear conclusions as to the reality of this phenomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of scientists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth’s atmosphere. There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming....It is highly likely that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming."
  82. ^ Institute of Biology policy page ‘Climate Change’  "there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is mostly anthropogenic, ie due to human activity.” As a consequence of global warming, they warn that a “rise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to occur. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of tropical diseases is also expected.” Subsequently, the Institute of Biology advocates policies to reduce “greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the consequences of climate change are likely to be severe."
  83. ^ SAF Forest Management and Climate Change (PDF), 2008  "Forests are shaped by climate....Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the potential to dramatically affect forests nationwide. There is growing evidence that our climate is changing. The changes in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere."
  84. ^ SAF Forest Offset Projects in a Carbon Trading System (PDF), 2008  "Forests play a significant role in offsetting CO2 emissions, the primary anthropogenic GHG."
  85. ^ Wildlife Society Global Climate Change and Wildlife (PDF)  "Scientists throughout the world have concluded that climate research conducted in the past two decades definitively shows that rapid worldwide climate change occurred in the 20th century, and will likely continue to occur for decades to come. Although climates have varied dramatically since the Earth was formed, few scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. The critical issue is no longer “if” climate change is occurring, but rather how to address its effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats." The statement goes on to assert that “evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change.” The statement concludes with a call for “reduction in anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global climate change and the conservation of CO2- consuming photosynthesizers (i.e., plants).”
  86. ^ AAP Global Climate Change and Children's Health, 2007  "There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from extreme weather events and natural disasters, increases in climate-sensitive infectious diseases, increases in air pollution–related illness, and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups."
  87. ^ ACPM Policy Statement Abrupt Climate Change and Public Health Implications, 2006  "The American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) accept the position that global warming and climate change is occurring, that there is potential for abrupt climate change, and that human practices that increase greenhouse gases exacerbate the problem, and that the public health consequences may be severe."
  88. ^ American Medical Association Policy Statement, 2008  "Support the findings of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which states that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that these changes will negatively affect public health. Support educating the medical community on the potential adverse public health effects of global climate change, including topics such as population displacement, flooding, infectious and vector-borne diseases, and healthy water supplies."
  89. ^ American Public Health Association Policy Statement ‘’Addressing the Urgent Threat of Global Climate Change to Public Health and the Environment’’, 2007  "The long-term threat of global climate change to global health is extremely serious and the fourth IPCC report and other scientific literature demonstrate convincingly that anthropogenic GHG emissions are primarily responsible for this threat….US policy makers should immediately take necessary steps to reduce US emissions of GHGs, including carbon dioxide, to avert dangerous climate change."
  90. ^ AMA Climate Change and Human Health — 2004, 2004  They recommend policies "to mitigate the possible consequential health effects of climate change through improved energy efficiency, clean energy production and other emission reduction steps."
  91. ^ AMA Climate Change and Human Health — 2004. Revised 2008., 2008  "The world’s climate – our life-support system – is being altered in ways that are likely to pose significant direct and indirect challenges to health. While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases. Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of extreme events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and fires and the indirect effects of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the food and water supply, resource conflicts and population shifts. Increases in average temperatures mean that alterations in the geographic range and seasonality of certain infections and diseases (including vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, Ross River virus and food-borne infections such as Salmonellosis) may be among the first detectable impacts of climate change on human health. Human health is ultimately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA believes that measures which mitigate climate change will also benefit public health. Reducing GHGs should therefore be seen as a public health priority."
  92. ^ World Federation of Public Health Associations resolution "Global Climate Change" (PDF), 2001  "Noting the conclusions of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other climatologists that anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which contribute to global climate change, have substantially increased in atmospheric concentration beyond natural processes and have increased by 28 percent since the industrial revolution….Realizing that subsequent health effects from such perturbations in the climate system would likely include an increase in: heat-related mortality and morbidity; vector-borne infectious diseases,… water-borne diseases…(and) malnutrition from threatened agriculture….the World Federation of Public Health Associations…recommends precautionary primary preventive measures to avert climate change, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and preservation of greenhouse gas sinks through appropriate energy and land use policies, in view of the scale of potential health impacts...."
  93. ^ WHO Protecting health from climate change (PDF): 2, 2008 [2009-04-18] 
  94. ^ Statement supporting AGU statement on human-induced climate change, American Astronomical Society, 2004  "In endorsing the "Human Impacts on Climate" statement [issued by the American Geophysical Union], the AAS recognizes the collective expertise of the AGU in scientific subfields central to assessing and understanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our AGU colleagues that the global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to that change."
  95. ^ ASA Statement on Climate Change, November 30, 2007  "The ASA endorses the IPCC conclusions.... Over the course of four assessment reports, a small number of statisticians have served as authors or reviewers. Although this involvement is encouraging, it does not represent the full range of statistical expertise available. ASA recommends that more statisticians should become part of the IPCC process. Such participation would be mutually beneficial to the assessment of climate change and its impacts and also to the statistical community."
  96. ^ Policy Statement, Climate Change and Energy, February 2007  "Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environmental risk... We believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities. Engineers Australia believes the Australian Government should ratify the Kyoto Protocol."
  97. ^ IAGLR Fact Sheet The Great Lakes at a Crossroads: Preparing for a Changing Climate (PDF), February 2009  "While the Earth’s climate has changed many times during the planet’s history because of natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth’s orbit, never before have we observed the present rapid rise in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2). Human activities resulting from the industrial revolution have changed the chemical composition of the atmosphere....Deforestation is now the second largest contributor to global warming, after the burning of fossil fuels. These human activities have significantly increased the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere. As the Earth’s climate warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heavier rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing severe drought; and more heat waves."
  98. ^ IPENZ Informatory Note, Climate Change and the greenhouse effect (PDF), October 2001  "Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and although the changes are relatively small, the equilibrium maintained by the atmosphere is delicate, and so the effect of these changes is significant. The world’s most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. Since the time of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million, an increase of around 30%. On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now projecting an average global temperature rise over this century of 2.0 to 4.5°C. This compared with 0.6°C over the previous century – about a 500% increase... This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise. ... Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and frequently have to make judgments based on incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already begun to make significant changes to the earth’s climate, and that the long-term risk of delaying action is greater than the cost of avoiding/minimising the risk."
  99. ^ AAPG Position Statement: Climate Change from dpa.aapg.org
  100. ^ Climate :03:2007 EXPLORER. Aapg.org. [2012-07-30]. 
  101. ^ Sunsetting the Global Climate Change Committee, The Professional Geologist, March/April 2010, p. 28
  102. ^ American Geological Institute Climate Statement. 12 Feb 1999 [July 2012]. （原始内容存档于July 2012）. 
  103. ^ AIPG Climate Change Letters sent to U.S. Government Officials
  104. ^ "AIPG Climate Change and Domestic Energy Statement", The Professional Geologist, January/February 2010, p. 42
  105. ^ The Professional Geologist publications. [July 2012]. （原始内容存档于July 2012）. 
  106. ^ "Climate Change and Society Governance", The Professional Geologist, March/April 2010, p. 33
  107. ^ billobrien.coml. Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences (CFES). Geoscience.ca. [2012-07-30]. 
  108. ^ Graham Lloyd. Earth scientists split on climate change statement. The Australian. June 4, 2014 [June 4, 2014].  
  109. ^ Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H. Expert credibility in climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2010, 107 (27): 12107–9 [22 August 2011]. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10712107A. PMC 2901439  . PMID 20566872. doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107. 
  110. ^ Doran consensus article 2009
  111. ^ John Cook, Dana Nuccitelli, Sarah A Green, Mark Richardson, Bärbel Winkler, Rob Painting, Robert Way, Peter Jacobs. Andrew Skuce. Expert credibility in climate change. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 May 2013, 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024. 
  112. ^ Naomi Oreskes. Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change (PDF). Science. December 3, 2004, 306 (5702): 1686. PMID 15576594. doi:10.1126/science.1103618.  (see also for an exchange of letters to Science)
  113. ^ Lavelle, Marianne. Survey Tracks Scientists' Growing Climate Concern. U.S. News & World Report. 2008-04-23 [2010-01-20]. 
  114. ^ Lichter, S. Robert. Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don't Trust the Media's Coverage of Climate Change. Statistical Assessment Service, George Mason University. 2008-04-24 [2010-01-20]. 
  115. ^ "Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change" at Journalist's Resource.org. 
  116. ^ Stephen J. Farnsworth, S. Robert Lichter. The Structure of Scientific Opinion on Climate Change. International Journal of Public Opinion Research. October 27, 2011 [December 2, 2011]. 
  117. ^ Bray, Dennis; von Storch, Hans. A Survey of the Perspectives of Climate Scientists Concerning Climate Science and Climate Change (PDF). 2009. 
  118. ^ Doran, Peter T.; Maggie Kendall Zimmerman. Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change (PDF). EOS. January 20, 2009, 90 (3): 22–23. Bibcode:2009EOSTr..90...22D. doi:10.1029/2009EO030002. 
  119. ^ Anderegg, William R L; Prall, James W.; Harold, Jacob; Schneider, Stephen H. Expert credibility in climate change (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2010, 107 (27): 12107–9. Bibcode:2010PNAS..10712107A. PMC 2901439  . PMID 20566872. doi:10.1073/pnas.1003187107. 
  120. ^ Cook, J.; Nuccitelli, D.; Green, S.A.; Richardson, M.; Winkler, B.; Painting, R.; Way, R.; Jacobs, P.; Skuc, A. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. Environ. Res. Lett. 2013, 8 (2): 024024. Bibcode:2013ERL.....8b4024C. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024. 
  121. ^ US NRC. Understanding and Responding to Climate Change. A brochure prepared by the US National Research Council (US NRC) (PDF). Washington DC, USA: US National Academy of Sciences. 2008. 
  122. ^ Joint Science Academies' Statement
  123. ^ Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences Adopted by the AMS Council 9 February 2003. Ametsoc.org. 2003-02-09 [2012-07-30]. 
  124. ^ Australian Coral Reef Society. Australian Coral Reef Society. [2012-07-30]. 
  125. ^ Australian Coral Reef Society official letter, June 16, 2006
引用错误：在<references>标签中name属性为“Prediction' or 'Projection; The nomenclature of climate science”的参考文献没有在文中使用
  • IPCC TAR SYR, Watson, R. T.; and the Core Writing Team , 编, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2001, ISBN 0-521-80770-0  (pb: 0-521-01507-3).
  • IPCC AR4 WG2, Parry, M.L.; Canziani, O.F.; Palutikof, J.P.; van der Linden, P.J.; and Hanson, C.E. , 编, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-0-521-88010-7  (pb: 978-0-521-70597-4).
  • IPCC AR4 WG3, Metz, B.; Davidson, O.R.; Bosch, P.R.; Dave, R.; and Meyer, L.A. , 编, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2007, ISBN 978-0-521-88011-4  (pb: 978-0-521-70598-1).
  • IPCC AR4 SYR, Core Writing Team; Pachauri, R.K; and Reisinger, A. , 编, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (SYR), Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2007, ISBN 92-9169-122-4 .
  • US NRC, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. A report by the Committee on the Science of Climate Change, US National Research Council (NRC), Washington, D.C., USA: National Academy Press, 2001, ISBN 0-309-07574-2, （原始内容存档于5 June 2011） 

en:Scientific opinion on climate change

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